Crime in Baltimore (P.1): Data

Availability of high-quality data on the time and location of major crimes in the city of Baltimore makes studying the characteristics of such crimes a data scientist’s delight. I have used a 12-year long dataset spanning from Jan-2011 to Dec-2022 (updated from the time of posting) to explore trends and patterns of violent crimes within the city, and also developed a model to predict crimes on any given street or in a neighborhood.

I have considered assault, robbery, shooting, rape and homicide as violent crimes, and ignored others such as larceny and theft. For simplicity I have combined different subcategories (commercial/carjacking) of robbery into a single “robbery” category, and aggregated/common assault into one “assault” category. Here I discuss major findings from the data itself. In the next post I talk about model development and predictions.

Yearly trends, 2011-22

A Baltimore Sun report using 5-year data from 2012 to 2017 showed a dip in violent crimes in the year 2014, followed by a sharp upswing through 2017.

Not surprisingly, my findings above confirm this trend, showing a 36% rise in all crimes over the 3-yr period between 2014-17. What is interesting though, is the seesaw that followed right after 2017, starting a 20% downswing over the next 3-yr period through 2020, followed again by a 11% upswing over the next 2 years. The latest increase is within 95% confidence interval (shaded band) around the smoothed trend line that is still going down, but two points to note here: first, smoothed lines lag actual trend in the data, and second, this line is already showing signs of flattening. More importantly, any uptrend in crimes in recent years is worth keeping an eye on, given the hardships of especially poorer communities during COVID era.

As the second plot above shows, these ups and downs are driven primarily by two major types of crime, assault and robbery, which together contribute to >90% of all violent crimes (assault alone accounts for 70%). Over the same three swing periods, assault rose 25%, fell 12% and rose again 12%, whereas robbery showed stronger trends – up 59%, down 42% and up 14%. Among the three “smaller” crimes, shooting rose sharply, 90%, from 2014 to ’17, and seems to have plateaued afterwards. Homicide and rape numbers also suggest a stabilizing trend in recent times.

Major types of weapon used in committing violent crimes from year 2011 to 2022 are shown below. For simplicity I have combined different firearm subcategories (firearm/handgun/rifle/automatic firearms etc) into a single Firearm category.

Firearm use spiked 82% from year 2014 to 2017, likely due to the prevalence of guns on streets as noted before. By contrast, there was a slower, but still significant, 30% drop in gun-related violence over the next 5 years through 2022. Crimes committed with knifes stayed more or less stable throughout the entire time.

Crime distribution in space

Studying swings and trends in time gives valuable information, but crime happens in space – streets, parking lots, neighborhoods and such. To understand the spatial distribution of violent crimes within the city area, and how it compares across different times, I looked at four specific years: the “down” year 2014, the “peak” year 2017, next down year 2020, and year 2022 (recorded ~2000 more violent crimes than in year 2020).

Neighborhood crime by numbers:

The sortable table below lists all neighborhoods by total crime activity and % changes over these years.

Neighborhood	2014	2017	2020	2022	%('14-'17)	%('17-'20)	%('20-'22)
Downtown	610	687	648	812	13%	-6%	25%
Frankford	414	540	460	481	30%	-15%	5%
Brooklyn	267	537	316	390	101%	-41%	23%
Belair-Edison	341	502	388	425	47%	-23%	10%
Sandtown-Winchester	338	481	398	332	42%	-17%	-17%
Cherry Hill	252	403	254	297	60%	-37%	17%
Upton	245	349	270	365	42%	-23%	35%
Central Park Heights	251	340	200	238	35%	-41%	19%
Coldstream Homestead Montebello	233	332	180	261	42%	-46%	45%
Hamilton Hills	209	281	203	237	34%	-28%	17%
Carrollton Ridge	185	271	278	211	46%	3%	-24%
Baltimore Highlands	163	259	158	118	59%	-39%	-25%
Broadway East	231	258	232	192	12%	-10%	-17%
Mcelderry Park	210	240	232	189	14%	-3%	-19%
Washington Village/Pigtown	166	233	146	208	40%	-37%	42%
East Baltimore Midway	170	231	203	229	36%	-12%	13%
Oliver	164	226	189	146	38%	-16%	-23%
Mount Vernon	135	224	207	165	66%	-8%	-20%
Mondawmin	210	215	168	209	2%	-22%	24%
Ellwood Park/Monument	229	212	216	191	-7%	2%	-12%
Fells Point	192	211	145	261	10%	-31%	80%
Dunbar-Broadway	158	206	163	148	30%	-21%	-9%
Morrell Park	103	205	208	259	99%	1%	25%
Lakeland	89	202	120	173	127%	-41%	44%
Patterson Park Neighborhood	204	200	99	147	-2%	-50%	48%
Curtis Bay	117	197	113	163	68%	-43%	44%
Harlem Park	154	193	120	114	25%	-38%	-5%
Irvington	97	181	179	157	87%	-1%	-12%
Canton	174	173	104	171	-1%	-40%	64%
Franklin Square	110	171	107	143	55%	-37%	34%
Inner Harbor	96	170	105	155	77%	-38%	48%
Reservoir Hill	168	169	143	190	1%	-15%	33%
Penn North	148	167	188	142	13%	13%	-24%
Poppleton	125	160	113	137	28%	-29%	21%
Glenham-Belhar	95	151	95	104	59%	-37%	9%
Millhill	97	151	129	106	56%	-15%	-18%
Berea	93	149	149	149	60%	0%	0%
Penrose/Fayette Street Outreach	148	145	165	158	-2%	14%	-4%
Charles North	98	144	109	165	47%	-24%	51%
Reisterstown Station	92	144	119	164	57%	-17%	38%
Rosemont	83	144	141	106	73%	-2%	-25%
Allendale	63	142	96	92	125%	-32%	-4%
Arlington	88	142	99	127	61%	-30%	28%
Oldtown	124	141	133	158	14%	-6%	19%
Hampden	105	135	66	116	29%	-51%	76%
Johnston Square	77	132	80	78	71%	-39%	-2%
Woodmere	84	128	123	107	52%	-4%	-13%
Charles Village	103	127	85	126	23%	-33%	48%
Carroll - Camden Industrial Area	53	126	77	118	138%	-39%	53%
Highlandtown	120	124	98	121	3%	-21%	23%
Howard Park	82	124	102	112	51%	-18%	10%
Waltherson	81	124	99	96	53%	-20%	-3%
Shipley Hill	81	123	72	100	52%	-41%	39%
Barclay	93	121	131	105	30%	8%	-20%
Druid Heights	72	120	71	92	67%	-41%	30%
Ednor Gardens-Lakeside	81	120	72	104	48%	-40%	44%
Greektown	98	120	88	103	22%	-27%	17%
Waverly	71	119	40	58	68%	-66%	45%
Midtown-Edmondson	85	116	59	70	36%	-49%	19%
Coppin Heights/Ash-Co-East	82	115	84	106	40%	-27%	26%
New Southwest/Mount Clare	84	115	99	99	37%	-14%	0%
Pulaski Industrial Area	90	114	122	170	27%	7%	39%
Madison-Eastend	106	113	92	85	7%	-19%	-8%
Better Waverly	125	110	97	137	-12%	-12%	41%
Gay Street	113	110	95	103	-3%	-14%	8%
Jonestown	58	109	102	88	88%	-6%	-14%
Hollins Market	78	108	85	81	38%	-21%	-5%
Walbrook	74	108	73	102	46%	-32%	40%
Washington Hill	96	107	69	111	11%	-36%	61%
New Northwood	77	106	102	136	38%	-4%	33%
Greenmount West	70	105	48	80	50%	-54%	67%
Care	52	104	61	62	100%	-41%	2%
Northwest Community Action	31	102	108	77	229%	6%	-29%
Glen	69	100	90	120	45%	-10%	33%
Loch Raven	85	97	97	131	14%	0%	35%
Madison Park	102	97	82	110	-5%	-15%	34%
Mid-Town Belvedere	80	97	82	116	21%	-15%	41%
Bolton Hill	63	96	86	121	52%	-10%	41%
Hanlon-Longwood	87	96	61	91	10%	-36%	49%
Bridgeview/Greenlawn	74	95	72	69	28%	-24%	-4%
Park Circle	103	93	70	91	-10%	-25%	30%
Dorchester	40	92	64	57	130%	-30%	-11%
Franklintown Road	70	92	75	66	31%	-18%	-12%
Federal Hill	117	90	58	145	-23%	-36%	150%
Edgewood	48	89	90	63	85%	1%	-30%
Milton-Montford	86	86	87	75	0%	1%	-14%
Upper Fells Point	54	84	51	62	56%	-39%	22%
Mosher	68	83	52	52	22%	-37%	0%
Perkins Homes	61	83	34	15	36%	-59%	-56%
Clifton Park	60	82	35	45	37%	-57%	29%
Fallstaff	52	81	62	74	56%	-23%	19%
Old Goucher	55	79	53	52	44%	-33%	-2%
Rosemont Homeowners/Tenants	44	79	38	63	80%	-52%	66%
North Harford Road	67	78	48	79	16%	-38%	65%
Riverside	48	78	27	74	62%	-65%	174%
University Of Maryland	30	78	77	118	160%	-1%	53%
Lauraville	57	77	47	41	35%	-39%	-13%
Saint Josephs	43	77	78	63	79%	1%	-19%
Pen Lucy	61	76	90	89	25%	18%	-1%
Violetville	53	73	85	106	38%	16%	25%
Armistead Gardens	44	72	75	49	64%	4%	-35%
Glen Oaks	61	72	54	65	18%	-25%	20%
Mount Holly	53	72	67	50	36%	-7%	-25%
Abell	56	71	29	61	27%	-59%	110%
Greenspring	69	68	81	88	-1%	19%	9%
Middle East	54	68	74	88	26%	9%	19%
Edmondson Village	47	67	87	82	43%	30%	-6%
Four By Four	32	67	29	35	109%	-57%	21%
Parkview/Woodbrook	61	67	69	53	10%	3%	-23%
Rognel Heights	54	67	76	30	24%	13%	-61%
Winchester	28	67	58	42	139%	-13%	-28%
Cedmont	36	66	64	44	83%	-3%	-31%
Graceland Park	63	65	74	82	3%	14%	11%
Heritage Crossing	36	65	36	34	81%	-45%	-6%
Remington	60	65	51	63	8%	-22%	24%
Westport	43	65	64	99	51%	-2%	55%
Butcher's Hill	50	64	22	43	28%	-66%	95%
Dolfield	46	64	63	100	39%	-2%	59%
Beechfield	46	63	59	56	37%	-6%	-5%
Bayview	49	62	87	73	27%	40%	-16%
Boyd-Booth	30	62	38	29	107%	-39%	-24%
Cylburn	62	62	64	48	0%	3%	-25%
South Clifton Park	73	62	87	79	-15%	40%	-9%
Towanda-Grantley	65	62	56	37	-5%	-10%	-34%
Westgate	58	62	61	48	7%	-2%	-21%
Seton Hill	52	61	82	43	17%	34%	-48%
Westfield	48	61	69	51	27%	13%	-26%
Harwood	56	60	72	65	7%	20%	-10%
Parkside	47	60	48	47	28%	-20%	-2%
Penn-Fallsway	50	60	45	27	20%	-25%	-40%
Union Square	56	60	46	33	7%	-23%	-28%
Broening Manor	40	59	44	67	48%	-25%	52%
Downtown West	55	59	53	73	7%	-10%	38%
Patterson Place	40	59	25	29	48%	-58%	16%
Gwynns Falls	20	58	98	60	190%	69%	-39%
Wakefield	37	58	46	26	57%	-21%	-43%
West Forest Park	28	58	36	51	107%	-38%	42%
Callaway-Garrison	17	56	31	50	229%	-45%	61%
Canton Industrial Area	26	56	44	68	115%	-21%	55%
Concerned Citizens Of Forest Park	22	55	40	51	150%	-27%	28%
Liberty Square	44	53	56	56	20%	6%	0%
Cameron Village	39	52	24	27	33%	-54%	12%
Easterwood	50	52	58	43	4%	12%	-26%
Langston Hughes	36	52	36	32	44%	-31%	-11%
Hopkins Bayview	27	51	46	42	89%	-10%	-9%
Parklane	57	50	72	39	-12%	44%	-46%
Carroll-South Hilton	24	49	52	38	104%	6%	-27%
Grove Park	35	49	37	22	40%	-24%	-41%
Biddle Street	52	48	46	51	-8%	-4%	11%
Orangeville	18	47	24	21	161%	-49%	-12%
Cedonia	41	46	53	55	12%	15%	4%
Yale Heights	29	45	73	39	55%	62%	-47%
Darley Park	39	44	41	42	13%	-7%	2%
Levindale	32	44	51	60	38%	16%	18%
Pimlico Good Neighbors	24	44	35	20	83%	-20%	-43%
East Arlington	47	43	37	46	-9%	-14%	24%
Kresson	29	43	29	29	48%	-33%	0%
Ramblewood	27	43	29	35	59%	-33%	21%
Central Forest Park	23	42	32	49	83%	-24%	53%
Medford	22	42	33	36	91%	-21%	9%
O'donnell Heights	38	42	52	67	11%	24%	29%
Forest Park	41	40	39	47	-2%	-2%	21%
Ashburton	47	39	32	41	-17%	-18%	28%
Fairmont	41	39	7	14	-5%	-82%	100%
Fairfield Area	25	38	24	11	52%	-37%	-54%
Hunting Ridge	10	38	24	17	280%	-37%	-29%
Middle Branch/Reedbird Parks	25	38	54	31	52%	42%	-43%
Pleasant View Gardens	56	38	53	42	-32%	39%	-21%
Homeland	19	37	12	27	95%	-68%	125%
South Baltimore	25	37	21	43	48%	-43%	105%
Winston-Govans	34	37	40	42	9%	8%	5%
Mid-Govans	37	36	44	34	-3%	22%	-23%
Oakenshawe	19	36	20	7	89%	-44%	-65%
Perring Loch	25	36	26	34	44%	-28%	31%
Cross Country	8	35	30	19	338%	-14%	-37%
Hillen	28	35	22	40	25%	-37%	82%
Cheswolde	10	34	40	35	240%	18%	-12%
Garwyn Oaks	27	34	18	27	26%	-47%	50%
Otterbein	19	33	19	52	74%	-42%	174%
Saint Agnes	11	32	27	27	191%	-16%	0%
West Arlington	32	32	38	63	0%	19%	66%
Woodbourne Heights	32	31	23	43	-3%	-26%	87%
Idlewood	20	30	16	36	50%	-47%	125%
Orchard Ridge	31	30	18	34	-3%	-40%	89%
Rosemont East	35	30	32	32	-14%	7%	0%
Sharp-Leadenhall	25	30	27	28	20%	-10%	4%
Tremont	7	30	16	20	329%	-47%	25%
Brewers Hill	27	29	10	56	7%	-66%	460%
Radnor-Winston	18	29	17	21	61%	-41%	24%
Richnor Springs	18	29	16	21	61%	-45%	31%
Burleith-Leighton	17	27	16	19	59%	-41%	19%
Coldspring	10	27	16	16	170%	-41%	0%
Kenilworth Park	20	27	15	24	35%	-44%	60%
Ridgely's Delight	11	27	11	23	145%	-59%	109%
Franklintown	21	26	29	32	24%	12%	10%
Guilford	16	26	9	16	62%	-65%	78%
Lower Edmondson Village	7	26	13	15	271%	-50%	15%
Morgan State University	11	25	26	13	127%	4%	-50%
Mount Washington	13	25	24	13	92%	-4%	-46%
Saint Helena	12	25	18	25	108%	-28%	39%
Little Italy	19	24	19	32	26%	-21%	68%
Stadium Area	18	24	6	32	33%	-75%	433%
Lucille Park	21	23	31	25	10%	35%	-19%
West Hills	13	23	18	28	77%	-22%	56%
Woodbourne-Mccabe	24	23	28	20	-4%	22%	-29%
Wyman Park	13	23	9	20	77%	-61%	122%
Roland Park	17	22	23	14	29%	5%	-39%
Ten Hills	13	22	37	18	69%	68%	-51%
Uplands	20	22	13	11	10%	-41%	-15%
Evergreen Lawn	18	21	18	22	17%	-14%	22%
Oaklee	2	21	13	11	950%	-38%	-15%
Seton Business Park	8	21	17	29	162%	-19%	71%
Stonewood-Pentwood-Winston	12	21	11	13	75%	-48%	18%
Locust Point	18	20	4	12	11%	-80%	200%
Mount Winans	18	20	18	19	11%	-10%	6%
Patterson Park	26	20	9	16	-23%	-55%	78%
Wilson Park	16	20	10	24	25%	-50%	140%
Panway/Braddish Avenue	25	19	16	50	-24%	-16%	212%
Rosebank	20	19	13	20	-5%	-32%	54%
Woodberry	21	19	83	36	-10%	337%	-57%
Mayfield	8	18	9	9	125%	-50%	0%
Original Northwood	13	18	12	8	38%	-33%	-33%
Windsor Hills	25	18	23	36	-28%	28%	57%
Arcadia	23	17	20	16	-26%	18%	-20%
Chinquapin Park	20	17	20	14	-15%	18%	-30%
Lake Walker	24	17	20	23	-29%	18%	15%
Orangeville Industrial Area	10	17	10	12	70%	-41%	20%
Wilhelm Park	10	17	23	13	70%	35%	-43%
Carroll Park	17	16	9	18	-6%	-44%	100%
Druid Hill Park	5	16	13	26	220%	-19%	100%
Morgan Park	3	16	1	1	433%	-94%	0%
Belvedere	7	15	16	13	114%	7%	-19%
Medfield	23	15	19	46	-35%	27%	142%
Moravia-Walther	4	15	16	8	275%	7%	-50%
Kernewood	4	14	5	10	250%	-64%	100%
Hoes Heights	9	13	5	14	44%	-62%	180%
Evesham Park	13	12	6	7	-8%	-50%	17%
Montebello	14	12	9	9	-14%	-25%	0%
Wrenlane	9	12	23	19	33%	92%	-17%
Belair-Parkside	22	11	20	8	-50%	82%	-60%
Overlea	3	11	6	9	267%	-45%	50%
Tuscany-Canterbury	6	11	5	8	83%	-55%	60%
Beverly Hills	5	10	4	1	100%	-60%	-75%
Locust Point Industrial Area	6	10	7	10	67%	-30%	43%
Jones Falls Area	10	9	4	13	-10%	-56%	225%
Purnell	5	9	7	10	80%	-22%	43%
Herring Run Park	7	8	5	1	14%	-38%	-80%
Wyndhurst	6	8	5	8	33%	-38%	60%
Cedarcroft	3	7	3	6	133%	-57%	100%
Cross Keys	15	7	7	10	-53%	0%	43%
Barre Circle	10	6	10	3	-40%	67%	-70%
Eastwood	9	6	11	12	-33%	83%	9%
Gwynns Falls/Leakin Park	3	6	8	6	100%	33%	-25%
Holabird Industrial Park	4	6	2	2	50%	-67%	0%
Dickeyville	1	5	2	3	400%	-60%	50%
Lake Evesham	6	4	4	2	-33%	0%	-50%
North Roland Park/Poplar Hill	4	4	14	15	0%	250%	7%
Spring Garden Industrial Area	1	4	3	5	300%	-25%	67%
Evergreen	4	3	4	6	-25%	33%	50%
Forest Park Golf Course	7	3	1	2	-57%	-67%	100%
Lower Herring Run Park	2	3	6	5	50%	100%	-17%
York-Homeland	9	3	8	32	-67%	167%	300%
Johns Hopkins Homewood	5	2	6	7	-60%	200%	17%
Loyola/Notre Dame	5	2		5	-60%
Mt Pleasant Park	1	2	1	3	100%	-50%	200%
Taylor Heights	1	2	4	5	100%	100%	25%
Bellona-Gittings	2	1			-50%
Greenmount Cemetery	3	1	1		-67%	0%
Hawkins Point	1	1	6	5	0%	500%	-17%
Keswick	2	1		1	-50%
Sabina-Mattfeldt	6	1	1	3	-83%	0%	200%
Saint Paul	2	1	1	7	-50%	0%	600%
The Orchards	1	1		1	0%
Port Covington	5			3

All crimes in the neighborhoods, year 2014, 2017, 2020 and 2022

Downtown Baltimore tops the list with most crimes by count in each of these years, but the % change is modest; crime rose 13% from 2014 to ’17, fell 6% from 2017 to ’20, then rose by 25% over ’20-’22. In comparison, every other neighborhood in the top 10 has experienced much bigger swings in crime activity; for example, Brooklyn saw 101% rise in violent crimes, followed by 41% drop, followed by 23% rise.

Table below shows a breakdown of crime activity by types in the neighborhoods for year 2022.

Neighborhood	Assault	Robbery	Shooting	Homicide	Rape
Downtown	582	202	11	4	13
Frankford	348	100	20	10	3
Belair-Edison	304	89	19	6	7
Upton	286	51	23	2	3
Brooklyn	278	75	26	9	2
Sandtown-Winchester	273	29	17	6	7
Cherry Hill	246	29	11	7	4
Coldstream Homestead Montebello	201	36	11	9	4
Hamilton Hills	194	32	5	4	2
Morrell Park	191	53	10	2	3
Fells Point	184	64	5	3	5
Central Park Heights	171	39	15	9	4
Reservoir Hill	155	27	4	2	2
East Baltimore Midway	151	61	11	2	4
Mondawmin	150	49	6	3	1
Washington Village/Pigtown	148	49	9		2
Broadway East	142	35	8	6	1
Carrollton Ridge	142	35	19	15
Mcelderry Park	141	27	14	2	5
Ellwood Park/Monument	134	36	13	4	4
Curtis Bay	132	22	4	2	3
Oldtown	123	22	8	3	2
Pulaski Industrial Area	121	39	3	2	5
Inner Harbor	119	29	3	1	3
Irvington	119	24	8	4	2
Poppleton	117	8	9	2	1
Canton	116	49	4	1	1
Charles North	115	46	4
Franklin Square	115	22	3	3
Lakeland	115	41	7	6	4
Mount Vernon	113	46	3		3
Berea	112	17	11	4	5
Penn North	109	18	10	3	2
Dunbar-Broadway	106	18	17	4	3
Loch Raven	104	19	7		1
Federal Hill	101	42	2
Penrose/Fayette Street Outreach	101	44	10	2	1
Better Waverly	98	34	1	1	3
Harlem Park	98	11	2	2	1
Patterson Park Neighborhood	96	47	3	1
Rosemont	95	9	1	1
Oliver	94	35	10	5	2
Reisterstown Station	92	65	4	1	2
Violetville	91	9	4	1	1
Howard Park	90	17	1	3	1
Arlington	89	21	8	8	1
Allendale	88	2	1	1
Carroll - Camden Industrial Area	86	26	3	3
New Northwood	84	48		3	1
Greektown	83	18	1		1
Coppin Heights/Ash-Co-East	82	15	6	2	1
Hanlon-Longwood	82	7	1	1
Baltimore Highlands	81	29	4	2	2
Charles Village	81	39	1	1	4
Glenham-Belhar	81	19	2	1	1
Millhill	81	18	4	3
Westport	79	15		4	1
University Of Maryland	78	26	8	3	3
Madison Park	77	28	5
Mid-Town Belvedere	77	36			3
Shipley Hill	77	12	6	4	1
Edmondson Village	76	4		1	1
Gay Street	74	15	10	4
Madison-Eastend	74	4	4	3
Barclay	73	20	7	2	3
Ednor Gardens-Lakeside	73	25	2	2	2
New Southwest/Mount Clare	73	18	3	5
Waltherson	73	20	1	1	1
Greenspring	72	10	2	3	1
Pen Lucy	71	13	2	2	1
Glen	70	38	5	3	4
Jonestown	67	17	2	1	1
Dolfield	66	31			3
Druid Heights	66	19	5		2
Highlandtown	66	54		1
Park Circle	66	18	3	2	2
Middle East	65	22	1
O'donnell Heights	64	1		1	1
Johnston Square	63	8	5	2
Washington Hill	63	43	1	2	2
Greenmount West	62	17	1
Walbrook	62	25	7	4	4
Bayview	61	11			1
Fallstaff	60	12	1		1
Hampden	60	49	6	1
Northwest Community Action	59	11	6		1
Woodmere	59	38	8	1	1
Graceland Park	57	24	1
Broening Manor	56	6	4		1
Hollins Market	56	22	1	2
Midtown-Edmondson	56	10		4
North Harford Road	56	22		1
Downtown West	55	18
Bolton Hill	54	66	1
Franklintown Road	54	6	4	2
Edgewood	52	5	2	4
Bridgeview/Greenlawn	51	14	1	2	1
Glen Oaks	51	13	1
West Arlington	51	6	2	2	2
Rosemont Homeowners/Tenants	50	8	5
Saint Josephs	50	2	6	4	1
South Clifton Park	50	16	7	6
Care	49	11		1	1
Dorchester	49	5	2	1
Milton-Montford	49	7	12	6	1
Waverly	49	8			1
Canton Industrial Area	48	20
Gwynns Falls	48	9	1		2
Harwood	48	14	3
Levindale	48	8		1	3
Beechfield	43	10	1	1	1
Concerned Citizens Of Forest Park	43	7		1
Upper Fells Point	43	19
Cedonia	42	9	2	1	1
Cylburn	42	4	1	1
West Forest Park	42	7	1	1
Biddle Street	41	7		3
Parkview/Woodbrook	41	8	1	3
Westgate	41	7
Callaway-Garrison	40	10
Mount Holly	40	9		1
Liberty Square	39	13	3	1
Remington	39	24
Mosher	38	11	2	1
Forest Park	37	5	1		4
East Arlington	36	8		2
Riverside	36	37	1
Yale Heights	36	2			1
Darley Park	35	2	3	1	1
Easterwood	35	5	1		2
Parkside	35	10	2
Pleasant View Gardens	35	6	1
Hopkins Bayview	34	4	2		2
Parklane	34	4	1
Medford	33	2			1
Ramblewood	33	2
Winchester	33	5	3	1
Central Forest Park	32	13	1	3
Clifton Park	32	12	1
Medfield	32	12	1		1
Armistead Gardens	31	18
Brewers Hill	31	23			2
Old Goucher	31	20	1
Panway/Braddish Avenue	31	17	2
Seton Hill	31	10	2
Abell	30	31
Heritage Crossing	30	1	2		1
Lauraville	30	11
Otterbein	30	17	1	3	1
Winston-Govans	30	11			1
Carroll-South Hilton	29	6	2		1
Four By Four	29	6
Windsor Hills	29	5		2
Woodbourne Heights	29	11	2	1
Boyd-Booth	28		1
Cedmont	28	15	1
Hillen	28	7	2	3
Idlewood	28	7		1
Mid-Govans	28	4		2
Cheswolde	27	8
Penn-Fallsway	27
Franklintown	26	5			1
Middle Branch/Reedbird Parks	26	3	1		1
Cameron Village	25	2
Rosemont East	25	6	1
Stadium Area	25	7
Union Square	25	6	2
Rognel Heights	24	4	1	1
South Baltimore	24	18			1
Wakefield	24	1	1
West Hills	24	3		1
Homeland	23	3	1
Kresson	23	6
Saint Helena	23	2
Westfield	23	25	1	1	1
Saint Agnes	22	5
York-Homeland	22	10
Lucille Park	21	2		2
Seton Business Park	21	7			1
Ashburton	20	18	2	1
Langston Hughes	20	6	5		1
Orchard Ridge	20	11	2		1
Perring Loch	20	14
Towanda-Grantley	20	4	10	2	1
Butcher's Hill	19	22			2
Garwyn Oaks	19	4		1	3
Tremont	19		1
Evergreen Lawn	18	2		2
Kenilworth Park	18	5			1
Patterson Place	18	10		1
Rosebank	18	2
Sharp-Leadenhall	18	7	2	1
Wilson Park	18	4	1	1
Woodbourne-Mccabe	18	1	1
Little Italy	17	13		1	1
Radnor-Winston	17	4
Richnor Springs	17	2	1	1
Woodberry	17	14	2		3
Cross Country	16	3
Ten Hills	16	2
Wrenlane	15	3	1
Pimlico Good Neighbors	14	2	3	1
Coldspring	13	3
Druid Hill Park	13	11	1		1
Grove Park	13	7			2
Hunting Ridge	13	3	1
Lake Walker	13	9			1
Orangeville	13	7		1
Arcadia	12	3	1
Fairmont	12	2
Carroll Park	11	6		1
Eastwood	11				1
Locust Point	11	1
Lower Edmondson Village	11	4
Mount Winans	11	4	3		1
Burleith-Leighton	10	7	2
Chinquapin Park	10	4
Jones Falls Area	10	3
Mount Washington	10	2		1
Ridgely's Delight	10	13
Guilford	9	6	1
Oaklee	9	1	1
Wilhelm Park	9	2	1		1
Hoes Heights	8	6
Overlea	8	1
Perkins Homes	8	6		1
Purnell	8	2
Stonewood-Pentwood-Winston	8	3	1		1
Uplands	8	2	1
Belair-Parkside	7	1
Belvedere	7	5	1
Cross Keys	7	1			2
Fairfield Area	7		1	1	2
Kernewood	7	1	1		1
Morgan State University	7	3	2		1
North Roland Park/Poplar Hill	7	8
Saint Paul	7
Johns Hopkins Homewood	6	1
Locust Point Industrial Area	6	4
Montebello	6	3
Roland Park	6	8
Wyman Park	6	14
Wyndhurst	6	2
Evesham Park	5	2
Hawkins Point	5
Moravia-Walther	5	2		1
Oakenshawe	5			1	1
Orangeville Industrial Area	5	5	2
Original Northwood	5	3
Patterson Park	5	10			1
Taylor Heights	5
Tuscany-Canterbury	5	3
Barre Circle	3
Cedarcroft	3	3
Dickeyville	3
Mayfield	3	6
Forest Park Golf Course	2
Holabird Industrial Park	2
Lake Evesham	2
Lower Herring Run Park	2	3
Loyola/Notre Dame	2	3
Port Covington	2	1
Sabina-Mattfeldt	2	1
Spring Garden Industrial Area	2	3
Beverly Hills	1
Evergreen	1	5
Gwynns Falls/Leakin Park	1	2	1	2
Herring Run Park	1
Keswick	1
Morgan Park	1
Villages Of Homeland	1
Mt Pleasant Park		3
The Orchards					1

Neighborhood crime by type, year 2022

As expected, downtown again tops the list in assault, robbery and rape. By contrast, Brooklyn reported most shooting incidents and Carrollton Ridge most homicides in 2022.

Visualizing crime distribution:

Often a better way to visualize spatially distributed crime data is by plotting the data points at the exact locations – streets, houses, parking lots – where the crimes occur. The images below are created by overlaying each and every crime incidence, represented by a colored dot for a particular type of crime, on the Baltimore city street map for the year 2014, 2017 and 2022.

There were more assaults (yellow) and robberies (red) throughout much of the city area in 2017 compared to both 2014 and 2022, as expected. We can get a close-up view by zooming in on a street or a neighborhood; the Brooklyn neighborhood that recorded large highs and lows noted in the table above is shown here.

Another way to view spatial data that may offer clarity is by comparing heatmaps of overall crime distribution, as shown below. These are hotspots marking locations of high crime activity within the city, generated by overlaying filled contour plots of different intensity levels on the city map. It is now easier to find areas that have seen more or less crime in any given year (for example Brooklyn).

One thing that is evident from these spatial plots is that the distribution of crime is not homogeneous in space; instead different types of crime are generally clustered in different areas of the city. In the next post I talk about how to exploit these clustering patterns, or “spatial correlations”, that can be used to develop predictive models.

Hi there! I am Roy, founder of Quantiux and author of everything you see here. I am a data scientist, with a deep interest in playing with data of all colors, shapes and sizes. I also enjoy coding anything that catches my fancy.

Leave a comment below if this article interests you, or contact me for any general comment/question.